CLARITY Act Odds Plummet as Crypto Regulation Enters Uncertain Territory

The prospects for the CLARITY Act becoming U.S. law this year have weakened significantly, according to Galaxy Research. The probability of the landmark crypto market structure bill passing in 2026 has fallen to just 10%, down from earlier projections.

Galaxy Research attributed the decline in the bill's chances to the Senate's legislative calendar becoming increasingly constrained and disagreements over the bill remaining unresolved. Despite industry-wide support for the legislation, which is designed to establish clearer rules governing digital assets and define the respective responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC, negotiations have dragged on.

The House of Representatives passed its version of the legislation in July 2025 by a vote of 294-134. However, the Senate has yet to complete a vote on the CLARITY Act, with a cloture vote now scheduled for September 15.