CLARITY Act Passage in 2026 Hits New Roadblock as Senate Delays Again

The CLARITY Act's passage in 2026 has hit another roadblock after Senate Majority Leader John Thune failed to seek cloture on the crypto market structure bill. This move follows a series of delays in the U.S. Senate, casting doubt on whether lawmakers can finish the necessary steps to advance the bill before the August recess.

Kalshi's prediction market has reflected this growing skepticism, no longer pricing in the possibility of the CLARITY Act passage in 2026 as the August 7 deadline approaches. Contracts setting the date for the bill to take effect before July 1, 2027 have fallen 8 percentage points to 41%.

The odds of approval prior to October 1, 2027 remain at 58%, but the odds of it becoming law were raised one point to 65% prior to January 1, 2028. More than $5.42 million in trading volume has been seen on the market as participants reappraise the bill's legislative prospects.