CLARITY Act Passage Odds Crash to Just 10%

The odds of passing the CLARITY Act have plummeted to just 10% as the Senate returns from recess, according to Galaxy Digital. The bill would divide U.S. crypto oversight between two federal regulators: the SEC and CFTC.

Galaxy Research made the revision after a series of unresolved disputes over ethics rules, bank lobbying, and developer protections weakened support for the measure. The firm had previously estimated a 75% chance of passage in May.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill with bipartisan support in May, but Republican backing has since eroded due to stablecoin yield provisions and illicit-finance concerns. A cloture motion on proceeding to the bill will ripen on September 15th, just before lawmakers return from recess.