CLARITY Act Passage Odds May Be Overstated, Experts Warn

The CLARITY Act has sparked regulatory focus in the crypto industry, but Alex Tapscott, CEO of CMCC Global Capital Markets, believes prediction markets are overstating its chances of passing.

Tapscott estimates that the bill currently has around 47-50% odds of becoming law, but thinks it may struggle to secure enough bipartisan support in the Senate.

He notes that the market has not priced in the passage of the CLARITY Act and expects that failure will not trigger a major correction. Instead, he believes approval could deliver a bigger surprise, potentially leading to a rally for regulated U.S. crypto companies.

Tapscott points to the GENIUS Act as a comparison, citing gains of around 25-30% within seven to 14 trading days for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood after its passage.