CLARITY Act Passage Odds Plummet Amid Conflict-of-Interest Fears

TD Cowen's Washington Research Group has downgraded the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026. Jaret Seiberg, managing director at TD Cowen, stated that despite the Senate Banking Committee advancing the bill earlier this month, it faces significant opposition from Democrats and banking industry groups.

The major obstacle to broader support remains unresolved conflict-of-interest provisions that Democrats insist must be included before they back any crypto market structure bill. A recent New York Times investigation into the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has further fueled resistance, with allegations of experienced agency staff being sidelined to favor crypto and prediction markets.

Seiberg noted that if Republicans are forced to vote on conflict-of-interest amendments, they may grow reluctant to bring the bill to a floor vote. This could result in lawmakers from both sides choosing to wait rather than act, leaving the bill in limbo heading into the second half of 2026.