Clarity Act Passage Odds Plummet as Congress Heads into Recess

The Clarity Act, a bill aimed at clarifying regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in the US digital asset market, faces uncertain passage in 2026. Despite its importance to the industry, analysts now see only a 30% chance of it becoming law this year.

According to a recent note from Bernstein, failure to pass the bill would likely trigger a negative knee-jerk reaction across digital asset markets, at least in the short term. However, Bernstein expects any setback to prove temporary and believes regulators will accelerate rulemaking under Project Crypto instead of waiting for Congress.

The bill's momentum has clearly cooled since its introduction last May, with analysts now framing it as a 'closing window' for passage. Despite this, Wall Street heavyweights including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and SoFi have publicly endorsed the legislation, while JPMorgan has pushed for tighter restrictions on stablecoin yield.