Clarity Act Passage Odds Plummet to 25% as Voting Delay Sparks Regulatory Uncertainty

The Crypto Clarity Act, a bipartisan bill aimed at creating a federal rulebook for U.S. crypto markets, has seen its chances of passing dwindle to 25%. TD Securities notes that while the bill is not dead, its path forward is increasingly difficult.

Last week's delay and potential stalling by Democrats have led to this assessment. Lawmakers had hoped to vote on the bill before a five-week recess, but now it will be put to a vote in September.

The bank assigns a 75% probability that the Clarity Act fails to become law this fall. One likely outcome is for cloture to pass initially in September but then for Republicans to block Democratic amendments on ethics and AML sections, leading Democrats to sink the second cloture vote.