CLARITY Act Passage Odds Plunge to Historic Low Amid Senate Gridlock

The chances of passing the CLARITY Act into law have hit an all-time low at 20% on the Kalshi prediction platform. Despite its passage in the House last year and initial optimism among crypto community members, the bill is now unlikely to pass before January 1, 2027.

Delays in deciding on the CLARITY Act among US Senators have led to a steady decline in the probability of its passage. Opposing lawmakers have been stuck in arguments over sections of the bill, including stablecoin yield restrictions and AML requirements.

The latest blow came when Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to file a cloture motion on the bill, leaving little time for securing 60 Senate votes before the August recess.