Coldcard Hack May Not Be Over Yet: Low Recovery Odds Predicted
The recent Coldcard Bitcoin hack may not be over yet, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. He believes that there's only a 20% to 40% chance of recovering the stolen BTC and that it could take years for any recovery process to unfold.
The exploit targeted users who kept their crypto in self-custody rather than on exchanges, which has shaken confidence in the security of hardware wallets. Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn pointed out a possible fourth wave of coordinated attacks, with hundreds of BTC transferred from victim wallets in a few hours.
Woo cited a recovery history of major crypto hacks to support his estimate, noting that Binance recovered 100% for users through its SAFU fund after losing roughly 7,000 BTC in 2019. On the other hand, Mt. Gox had recovered only 16 to 20% across proceedings between 2014 and 2026.
Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn also spoke about a 'likely 4th organized wave' of Coldcard attacks, with 388.93 BTC removed from 462 victim addresses to 216 freshly created destinations over roughly two hours. This brings the total damage from the exploit to over 1,367 BTC, worth around $86.6 million.