Cowen Sees 65% Chance of More Pain for Bitcoin

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, remains skeptical about Bitcoin's recent rally. In his opinion, there is a 65% chance that Bitcoin's cycle low still lies ahead, keeping his bear market thesis alive.

Cowen points to Bitcoin's realized price near $53,000 as the level bears still need to test before calling the bottom. He notes that every prior midterm-year bear market bottomed below this line, with the exact month varying widely across cycles.

The analyst has long argued that Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle pattern, and lows typically form in a midterm year's fourth quarter. If the pattern holds, an October low would be consistent with this pattern.

Cowen expects some headwinds for Bitcoin over the next month and a half, but notes that clearing October without a lower low could shift the odds toward the bulls. He emphasizes that his bearish bias would only change if bears capitulate, at which point he would drop his current stance.