Cowen Sees October 2026 as Key Date for Bitcoin Cycle Bottom

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen estimates that Bitcoin is approximately 69-73 days away from its next cycle bottom, which could potentially occur around October 2026. This prediction is based on a comparison of the current cycle length with previous cycles, where the earlier cycles reached their respective bottoms around day 1,432 and day 1,436.

Cowen's argument is that Bitcoin's market cycle has retained some of its historical timing characteristics, even as the shape of each cycle has changed. He believes that the four-year cycle may not be dead but rather evolving, with institutional demand preventing extreme peaks and crashes seen in previous cycles.

However, this view faces a challenge from the changing market structure, particularly with the arrival of spot ETFs and greater participation from institutional investors. Fidelity has pointed to another unusual development: Bitcoin's one-year volatility has recently reached new lows only months after a record high.