Cowen Uncovers Dual Scenarios for Bitcoin's Price Movement
Benjamin Cowen, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, has outlined two possible scenarios for Bitcoin's future price movement. In his analysis video, Cowen examined various on-chain data, technical indicators, market sentiment, and cyclical historical data to determine the likelihood of either a bullish or bearish outcome.
Cowen pointed out that while there are strong signals supporting both bulls and bears, he believes Bitcoin is already giving several signals pointing to a cycle bottom. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to its historical lows, and the monthly RSI has shown significant cooling. Additionally, the Golden Cross and long-term investors' accumulation levels hovering near historical cycle lows also support a potential bottom formation.
However, Cowen noted that the historical data supporting a bearish scenario has not yet been completely erased. Critical on-chain metrics such as the Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, and Market Cap/Thermocap ratio have not yet fallen to extremely low levels seen in past bear market lows. Moreover, whale activity remains weaker compared to past lows, suggesting that a decline is still possible.
Cowen emphasized that the 50-week moving average will play a key role in determining the market's future direction. If weekly closes are above this level, currently around $80,000, it would solidify the bullish scenario. Conversely, a rejection at this level could lead to a search for a new low in the last quarter of the year (October or November).