Cowen's Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Prediction Faces Pushback from Fidelity and Bitwise

Benjamin Cowen, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, has predicted that Bitcoin is between 69 and 73 days away from its next cycle bottom. According to his count, Bitcoin currently sits on cycle day 1,363.

Cowen's estimate is based on the prior two cycles' bottoms, which occurred on days 1,432 and 1,436, respectively. This suggests that the projected low for this cycle could be near October 2026.

Cowen has a strong track record with his day-count model, which has become a go-to reference for traders. He argues that Bitcoin topped within a week of when it historically tops, despite the narratives calling for the four-year cycle framework to be dead.

However, not everyone agrees with Cowen's prediction. Fidelity and Bitwise have pointed out that new lows in one-year volatility are appearing just months after Bitcoin's record high, which is a pattern that never showed up in earlier cycles. Additionally, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury demand may be weakening the old halving cycle.