Crypto Bull Run Halted by Options Selling, AI Frenzy, and Regulatory Gridlock
Maxime Seiler, CEO of STS Digital, a Bermuda-regulated crypto options market maker, believes three main barriers are holding back the next bull run in cryptocurrency.
The first barrier is institutional investors selling options, which has suppressed Bitcoin's price volatility. The BVIV Index, a measure of expected 30-day volatility derived from Bitcoin options, has been unusually subdued in recent months, falling into the mid-30% range, among its lowest levels of the current cycle.
The second barrier is capital rotating into artificial intelligence (AI), which Seiler says has diverted attention and capital away from cryptocurrency. High-profile developments around companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and the SpaceX IPO have made AI the market's dominant growth narrative, according to Seiler.
The third barrier is delays in U.S. crypto legislation, including the Clarity Act, which would provide regulatory certainty and accelerate traditional finance's shift toward 24/7 trading and settlement, creating a more constructive backdrop for digital assets, says Seiler.