Crypto Games: Theoretical vs Actual Return

The theoretical return on investment (RTP) for crypto slots and games is often misunderstood. A game advertised at 96% will rarely, if ever, return that amount to a player in a single session or even over their entire history with the game.

This is not a criticism of the RTP figure itself, but rather an explanation of what it means and how it differs from actual returns experienced by players. The theoretical RTP is calculated across millions of simulated rounds and represents where results converge as the sample size grows without bound.

Actual return, on the other hand, refers to what happens in a player's individual rounds. It is a single draw from a distribution centered on the theoretical figure, and over any realistic sample size, actual returns can scatter widely.

A key takeaway is that volatility plays a significant role in determining how far actual returns deviate from the theoretical figure. Games with high volatility may pay out infrequently but significantly, while those with low volatility tend to pay out more consistently, albeit at lower amounts.