Crypto Markets Found to be Less Predictable Than Thought

Crypto markets never close, unlike traditional stock exchanges which have fixed trading hours. This continuous nature of crypto trading raises questions about potential weekday effects on returns.

A 2026 study published in Finance Research Letters analyzed hourly price data from 12 cryptocurrencies to investigate this idea. The researchers found that some coins did appear to have better days, such as Bitcoin's positive Monday effect and Ethereum's Wednesday effect.

However, when the researchers looked at the data hour by hour, they discovered that these apparent effects were often caused by short periods of time rather than a consistent pattern throughout the day. For example, Bitcoin's Monday returns were concentrated in two hours (06:00 and 18:00 UTC), while Ethereum's Wednesday effect appeared mainly during four specific hours (01:00, 02:00, 07:00, and 20:00 UTC).

The study suggests that the cryptocurrency market is becoming more efficient as liquidity grows and professional trading becomes more common. This means that any small patterns or inefficiencies may be quickly exploited by traders, making it harder to profit from them in the long run.