Crypto Rally Has Legs, Says Mizuho Analyst

Mizuho's Dan Dolev says three signs indicate the crypto market may be bottoming. He points to reduced leverage, low coin-denominated open interest, and strong ETF demand as factors supporting a sustained rally.

The current rally is running on less leverage than previous ones, according to Dolev. This suggests spot capital is driving gains rather than a continued short squeeze. Coin-denominated open interest fell to a one-month low after the initial rally and has not rebuilt, meaning 'the continuation is being carried by spot and ETF demand rather than leveraged longs.'

Dolev also notes that retail trading activity could offer another leg higher. Volumes remain 'three years washed-out,' with firming flows into still-depressed exchange volume resembling a 'late-consolidation setup.' He says the key question remains whether ETF-led accumulation eventually pulls retail activity back onto exchanges or if ETFs continue to absorb demand.

The analyst highlights several individual stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from the rally. Among them is, which Dolev calls the 'cleanest way to express the inflection.' He cites Robinhood's multi-quarter record 40% spot retail share in the second quarter of 2026 and its strongest operating leverage among peers.

Dolev also sees as a 'contrarian value' play. The stock lagged the rally and trades near 52-week lows at a sub-10x price-to-earnings following a post-earnings selloff, even as funded accounts grew 18% to 4.28 million.