EU Carbon Pricing Drives Bitcoin Mining Emissions Toward Russia

Research suggests that elevated carbon pricing within the European Union could be redirecting greenhouse gas emissions linked to cryptocurrency mining toward Russia.

The study, which examined interactions between Bitcoin price movements and returns on European carbon allowances from January 2019 to January 2026, found a positive relationship in Russia's lower quantiles of emission growth.

Russia stands out as the sole region where the overall model achieves joint significance, particularly after 2020 when China prohibited mining activities and EU allowance prices surged tenfold.

This dynamic represents carbon leakage that current EU policy tools struggle to address effectively. The study's findings underscore limitations in relying solely on regional carbon markets to curb global emissions from digital asset production.