Fed Rate Hike Odds Plummet to Coin-Flip as Bitcoin Surges Above $82,000

The Federal Reserve's rate hike odds have taken a sharp turn. What was once a near-certainty is now an even bet, with the probability of a September rate hike falling to 50/50.

This shift in expectations tracks Bitcoin's recent rally, which has pushed the cryptocurrency toward $82,000.

The CME Group FedWatch tool shows that the September 16 meeting is now split almost evenly between holding the benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% and lifting it a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%.

This change in outlook has pushed back the timeline for a second rate hike, with the FedWatch tool now pricing a move to the 4.00-4.25% range until March 2027 rather than December 2026 as previously expected.