Fed September Meeting Becomes Coin Flip for Markets

The Federal Reserve's September meeting has become a coin flip for markets, with odds of a rate hike or hold at near-parity. According to Kalshi market traders, there is a 49% chance of a hold versus 47% for a 25-basis-point increase. This uncertainty has Bitcoin trading near $64,500, as buyers defend support around $63,500 and $64,000.

The close probabilities reflect competing inflation and growth signals. Lower oil prices could reduce near-term price pressure, but several Fed officials still want clearer evidence that inflation is easing. Governor Lisa Cook said she could support higher rates unless inflation cools soon, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports patience while officials assess more data.

The disagreement among policymakers and forecasters leaves policy expectations unusually scattered before the next meeting. Bank of America expects a September hike, followed by increases in October and December, while JPMorgan sees no September move but possible December hikes. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays expect rates to stay unchanged through year-end.

Bitcoin price holds near $64,500 after reclaiming an important short-term area. Buyers are trying to keep the asset above the 50-day exponential moving average near $64,673. A former descending trendline around $63,514 offers the next support zone, while immediate resistance sits near $65,404.