Fed Study Finds Bitcoin Returns Can Spur Crypto Buying
A new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that information about Bitcoin's past performance can influence how much cryptocurrency U.S. households want to own and whether they subsequently buy it.
The working paper, published on July 14, 2026, analyzed recurring surveys containing between 15,000 and 25,000 responses per wave. The researchers found that households shown Bitcoin's trailing 12-month return raised their desired crypto allocation by about two percentage points, representing a 47% increase from the control group's average desired allocation of 4.3%.
The study also showed that participants exposed to Bitcoin return information were about 2.5 percentage points more likely to purchase cryptocurrency in a later survey wave. The researchers found that expected returns had a stronger statistical relationship with ownership than observable personal characteristics, with each additional percentage point in expected returns associated with an 0.8-percentage-point increase in the probability of owning cryptocurrency.
The study's findings support a possible mechanism through which rising prices attract new market participants, potentially creating a price feedback loop. The authors noted that their results do not establish a causal link between optimistic beliefs and existing ownership, but rather describe an association between expected returns and ownership.