Fed's Monetary Response Could Send BTC to $1 Million, Says Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has proposed a macro framework that suggests an AI-driven white-collar job loss could lead to a severe credit crisis, prompting the Federal Reserve to engage in large-scale money printing.

Hayes argues that this scenario would have a significant impact on global fiat liquidity, making Bitcoin the primary beneficiary. He estimates that a 20% reduction in US knowledge workers would inflict approximately $557 billion in consumer and mortgage losses on commercial bank balance sheets.

Hayes frames two distinct scenarios for traders to consider: either Bitcoin's current drawdown from its all-time high is the full extent of the move, or it has further to fall as the credit crisis develops. In both cases, Hayes advises against adding leveraged exposure until a confirmed Fed pivot.