Ferguson and Dart Player Props: A Tale of Efficiency and Scrambling Ability
The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants face off in Sunday Night Football's Week 1 matchup, with the visitors favored by 3.0 points. The game script may favor a more run-heavy approach from both teams.
Jake Ferguson, a tertiary pass-catching option for the Cowboys, is expected to see reduced involvement due to his lower efficiency and the presence of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in the pecking order. As a result, he's likely to come up short of 30.5 receiving yards.
Jaxson Dart, the Giants' dual-threat quarterback, has a favorable matchup against the Cowboys, who were tied for third-most scramble yards allowed per game last season. With designed runs factored in, Dallas allowed an average of 23.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks in 2025.
The league average for pass rate over expected (PROE) was 0.4% last year, but the Cowboys faced a significantly higher PROE after acquiring Quinnen Williams. This suggests that the Giants may need to drop back often to keep up or catch up, which could lead to increased rushing opportunities for Dart.