Fidelity Warns Bitcoin's August Rally May Not End Bear Market

Fidelity Digital Assets has cautioned that Bitcoin's strong August performance does not necessarily mean the cryptocurrency's broader bear market has ended.

The firm pointed out that despite Bitcoin's strongest monthly gain since late 2024, investors should still consider the possibility of another market bottom later this year.

A key development is the four-year cycle model, which places attention on November 2026. However, Fidelity emphasized that this pattern is not a reliable timing tool and has noted that Bitcoin's historical cycles have not consistently lasted exactly four years.

Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, said the more important point for investors is how cryptocurrency adoption develops, which can perpetuate cycles. He also noted that previous Bitcoin bear markets have sometimes ended after a period of subdued volatility followed by a sharp expansion in price activity.