Fidelity Warns of Another Leg Down for Bitcoin Price as Recovery Sparks Debate
The Bitcoin price has recovered above $80,000 after a 4.3% daily gain on Friday, capping off its strongest monthly performance since November 2024.
Fidelity's analysis suggests that this rebound may not necessarily confirm a new bullish cycle, and the market could still experience another leg lower before the current bear phase is exhausted.
The firm's four-year cycle framework indicates that major bear-market bottoms and bull-market tops tend to land roughly four years apart. Given that the last confirmed bottom occurred in November 2022, Fidelity's model suggests a possible November 2026 bottom if the pattern holds.
Fidelity emphasizes that this is a conditional scenario, not a forecast, and notes that Bitcoin's bottom may already have occurred back in July or could still fall again to set a fresh low in November or later.