FOMC Meeting Looms: Will Dovish or Hawkish Tone Decide Bitcoin's Next Move?

Bitcoin's price remains resilient above $64,000 as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but traders are closely watching for clues on liquidity, inflation, and financial conditions that could determine Bitcoin's next major move.

The Federal Reserve's policy meeting is set to be one of the biggest macro catalysts for Bitcoin today, with investors preparing for increased volatility once the decision is announced. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign a 68.5% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, while a 31.5% chance remains for a 25-basis-point rate hike.

Traders are likely to focus less on the rate decision itself and more on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's policy outlook, which could provide clues on inflation, economic growth, and the future path of monetary policy. A dovish tone from Warsh could improve liquidity expectations and boost demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, while a hawkish stance may strengthen the US dollar and trigger short-term selling pressure across both equities and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin's price structure continues to signal resilience, with repeated defenses of the $64,000 demand zone highlighting sustained buying interest despite the absence of a fresh bullish catalyst. The continued formation of higher lows on the daily chart suggests buyers remain in control, with the broader uptrend still intact.