Fundstrat's Tom Lee Predicts Stock Market Rally, Sees Bitcoin at $150,000
Tom Lee of Fundstrat is predicting that September's crash fear could trigger a rally in the stock market, which would carry Bitcoin to $150,000. He based his prediction on historical data showing that the average low point in the US stock market occurred on September 2 across 10 midterm election years since 1986.
The current market is bracing for weakness due to a hawkish Fed and a decline in seasonality, but Lee thinks this fear could be a contrarian signal. He expects policymakers to neither hike nor cut interest rates, which would lead to a strong rally in the markets.
Lee's base case is that the Fed will not take any action on September 15, which he believes could result in a market surprise. If the pullback slips into October, Lee thinks it could start above 8,000 on the S&P 500 and the low might land near 7,300.
Bitcoin's current price level sits at $78,875, up only 0.3% over 24 hours. Lee calls this a shallow crypto winter caused by forced selling, not broken fundamentals. He counts four catalysts for Bitcoin: it led all macro assets in the third quarter, the four-year crypto cycle ends next month, Korean traders are rotating back from AI stocks, and the CLARITY Act could pass this year.
Lee still treats $150,000 as a possible price target for Bitcoin, alongside an S&P 500 above 8,200. He believes that both rest on earnings estimates that keep climbing.