Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 30%
Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate of the likelihood that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, from 50% to 30%. This revised assessment reflects concerns about the U.S. Senate's 60-vote threshold, which requires significant bipartisan support to overcome a filibuster.
The CLARITY Act, crucial for crypto market-structure legislation, passed the House in 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026. However, it has yet to secure a full Senate vote, and the legislative calendar is tightening.
Markets appear to be responding to Galaxy Research's revised assessment by decreasing the probability of the CLARITY Act's passage. The prediction market indicates a current 36.5% chance of the Act becoming law by the end of 2026, down from 42% just a week ago.