Global Economy Enters Repricing Phase as Inflation and Energy Prices Soar
The global macroeconomic and financial environment has shifted further from maintaining high interest rates to repricing the risk of interest rate hikes. Rising US inflation data and energy prices have reinforced market concerns about double-dip inflation, with the probability of a Fed rate hike now almost certain.
US Treasury yields have risen rapidly, tightening financial conditions via higher discount rates rather than liquidity shortages. The current market is closer to a risk repricing phase driven by rising macro discount rates and internal deleveraging, but a capitulation sell-off has not yet occurred.
BTC's price structure last week was highly consistent with the macroeconomic environment, consolidating at high levels amid ETF outflows and derivatives deleveraging. The market is cooling down, but there are no signs of a significant decline in prices.