Golden Cross Sparks Bullish Signal as Rate Hike Odds Rise

Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating in recent weeks, with the cryptocurrency trading around $78,000 on Thursday. Despite this, a technical signal known as the golden cross suggests that further gains may be on the horizon. This pattern occurs when an asset's short-term average price trend moves above its long-term average trend.

The golden cross has been triggered in Bitcoin only once since 2012, with a mixed track record of success. Out of 12 past crosses, only three remained valid for a full year, resulting in an average return of 250% over that period. However, the signal's reliability is limited by its tendency to trigger false alarms approximately three times.

Another indicator supporting the bullish case for Bitcoin's price is USDT's share of the total crypto market capitalization, which has been rising and nearing a potential reversal at its 50- and 200-day moving averages. This suggests that capital may be shifting into stablecoins and away from Bitcoin and altcoins.

However, the macro backdrop presents a challenge to this bullish outlook, with the odds of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve increasing to around 60% following strong August nonfarm payrolls data. The stronger payroll report has added uncertainty to the Bitcoin price prediction.