Golden Cross Sparks Hopes of Further Gains as Rate Hike Odds Rise

The recent golden cross on Bitcoin's daily chart has sparked hopes of further gains. However, only three out of 12 past crosses have been successful in the long run.

The odds of a Fed rate hike have risen to 60%, which could create a short-term downside risk for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency currently trades around $78,000, down from its recent highs and unable to close above $80,000 for the second consecutive week.

A golden cross occurs when an asset's short-term average price trend moves above its long-term average trend. This signals that recent buying momentum has overtaken the long-term trend. However, the signal's track record is mixed, with only three of 12 crosses remaining valid for a full year, generating an average return of 250%.

The rising USDT dominance, which indicates capital shifting into stablecoins and away from Bitcoin and altcoins, also supports the bullish case for Bitcoin's price. However, the macro backdrop remains uncertain, with strong payroll data increasing expectations of a rate hike for the FED's September meeting.