Gulf States Rethink Security After War with Iran Exposes Fragile Framework
The funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei brought Gulf states together in a show of unity, but their absence from his burial also revealed deep divisions. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman sent official delegations to pay their respects, while the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain did not attend.
The Iran war had a profound impact on the region's security framework. President Trump's decision to wage war on Iran exposed the fragility of the Gulf states' bet on remaining stable in a turbulent Middle East. War-risk insurance costs soared, and Iranian attacks followed, targeting facilities at Abqaiq and Ras Laffan.
The conflict produced an unusual strategic convergence among Gulf monarchies. There is now widespread recognition that the region's existing security framework has failed, and officials broadly agree on three points: Iran remains a long-term threat, the US security umbrella is no longer dependable, and regional stability has become an existential priority.
However, consensus on diagnosis only sharpened disagreement over the prescription. The Gulf states' competition, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, means that convergence remains a trend rather than a settled fact.