Hayes Predicts $1 Million Bitcoin as AI Credit Crisis Looms

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that liquidity following a potential credit crisis in artificial intelligence infrastructure could drive Bitcoin to $1 million. According to Hayes, a collapse in AI spending would resemble the 2008 credit crisis more than the 2000 internet bubble.

Hayes argues that investors view spending on data centers as highly profitable technology investments, but these expenditures are comparable to leveraged real estate investments. He notes that the land, buildings, energy connections, and cooling systems of data centers resemble a construction project, while the processors inside them lose value as newer and more efficient chips are released.

The executive predicts that growth in AI spending will slow in the second half of 2027, with effects becoming evident in 2028. Hayes' Bitcoin scenario is based on the policy response he expects from the U.S. government. He believes that the U.S. will protect strategically important AI companies and their lenders because computing capacity has become part of economic competition with China.

The monetary expansion this intervention would create could support Bitcoin, Hayes claims. According to him, Bitcoin might first stay between $60,000 and $70,000, could fall to $50,000, and then rise toward $1 million. These levels are not presented as guaranteed targets but rather as scenarios contingent on the conditions Hayes expects.

Hayes also predicted that Ethereum would reach $5,000 by the end of the year and stated that his own fund, Maelstrom, plans to build positions accordingly.