Hayes Sees AI Bubble Triggering Gov Bailout, Then Bitcoin Surge

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bitmex and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, warns that Bitcoin may fall to $50,000 before reaching $1 million. According to Hayes, the current AI buildout is a leveraged real estate bubble, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, which will end in a government bailout larger than 2008.

Hayes compares data center financing to the 2008 financial crisis rather than the dot-com crash of 2000, arguing that an AI credit bust could trigger government intervention and liquidity that propel Bitcoin toward $1 million. He notes that hyperscalers are effectively financing real estate filled with rapidly depreciating hardware.

The Federal Reserve Board's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted AI-related risks as a top concern among market participants, with half of respondents naming it as a possible shock. Hayes expects the announced pace of data center capital spending to decelerate from mid-2027, with the deceleration becoming apparent in 2028.