Hayes Sees Bitcoin Bull Market Ignition as Treasury Buybacks Supercharge Liquidity

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is convinced that the Bitcoin bull market has begun. He points to expanded Treasury buybacks as the trigger, which he believes are fueling dollar liquidity and a surge in cryptocurrency prices.

Hayes, who is also the chief investment officer of Maelstrom, wrote an essay titled 'Same Same But Different' on August 25, 2026. In it, he argues that the current setup mirrors conditions that preceded past Bitcoin rallies.

Hayes sees a parallel between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expansion of longer-dated Treasury buybacks and former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's approach in late 2023. At that time, Yellen increased the share of debt issued as short-term Treasury bills rather than longer bonds to boost liquidity.

Hayes believes that Bitcoin is a 'global liquidity smoke alarm,' reacting faster than other assets to policy shifts. He notes that Bessent could also draw down the Treasury General Account to fund larger repurchases, and that the Fed's Reserves Management Program adds another channel for buying Treasury bills.