Hedge Funds Pile into Gasoline Bets as US-Iran Conflict Continues to Reshape Energy Markets
Hedge funds are placing increasingly large bets on higher US gasoline prices, with net long positions in NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures and options climbing by 5,533 lots during the week ending August 25. This is the largest weekly jump since February 24, just before the US-Iran conflict escalated.
The buildup isn't limited to gasoline; similar positioning trends are showing up in US diesel and crude oil futures. Non-commercial traders, including hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, are driving this shift, while commercial hedgers, such as refiners and distributors, tend to be on the other side of these trades.
The conflict has disrupted shipping lanes and created uncertainty around crude supply from the Persian Gulf region, pushing gasoline prices above $4.09 per gallon, a national average that reflects seasonal demand strength and conflict-driven supply anxiety.
For the energy complex, the two key variables are whether military operations expand to directly target Iranian oil infrastructure and whether OPEC+ members with spare capacity choose to increase output to stabilize markets.