Held Sees $100 Trillion Valuation for SpaceX on Falling Launch Costs

SpaceX could reach a valuation of $100 trillion within two decades, according to early Bitcoin investor Dan Held. He points to falling launch costs opening up markets in missile defense, satellite internet, and rocket travel.

Held made the case on The Rollup podcast, highlighting the cost of sending a kilogram of cargo to orbit as his key metric. Historically, this figure was around $20,000 during the Space Shuttle era, but Held believes it could fall to $10 with Starship.

He compared betting on SpaceX to his early conviction in Bitcoin (BTC) and said he sold most of his stake in cryptocurrency exchange Kraken to invest in SpaceX five years ago. Held pointed to Starlink as an early proof point, saying it's not just a fiber alternative but a business that could rival telecom carriers.

Other use cases for the technology include missile defense, where detecting rocket launches from orbit could allow the U.S. to intercept threats with little warning. He also cited orbital data centers, which trade higher launch costs for near-zero operating costs, and point-to-point travel, which could cut a New York-to-Tokyo flight to 25 minutes.