Historic Indicators Suggest Bitcoin Bear Market Has Bottomed Out
Bitcoin's long-term cyclical indicators suggest that the current bear market may have bottomed out. According to Blockworks Research, five historic indicators are simultaneously flashing signals that Bitcoin is at or near its long-term cyclical price low.
The first indicator is based on the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 index to Bitcoin, calculated using weekly closing prices over the past 875 periods. This metric has only breached all-time highs four times in 16 years, with the current reading reaching 72.6, a record for the longest duration.
Historically, readings above 70 have occurred within the past month, and the current cycle has lasted 24 weeks, far exceeding previous instances. This situation represents one of the rarest phenomena for this indicator, making Bitcoin the most oversold it has ever been against the Nasdaq index.
The second indicator is based on long-term expected returns, which show upward asymmetry in the three completed cycles over longer time horizons. However, short-term expected returns hold almost no predictive value, as they are small and directionally inconsistent.
The third indicator is based on the Gold/Bitcoin ratio, which also shows readings above 66 being rare, mean-reverting properties, and clustered around extreme values. According to this metric, February 2026 represents the most overbought period in Gold/Bitcoin history.