Housing Cycle Predicts Market Peak in 2025-26: What It Means for Stocks and Crypto
US housing data suggests that the market may be near its peak according to Jason Pizzino, a popular macro analyst. He believes that an 18-year property cycle drawn from roughly 220 years of US sales data indicates the current cycle began around 2011-2012 and places the housing peak in 2025-26. Pizzino points out that home prices rose 1.5% year-on-year in June, but fell in real terms for a 13th straight month. In July, new-home sales dropped 10.5%, with a median price of $393,800, its lowest in five years.
Pizzino's key signal is D.R. Horton, the homebuilder that peaked before the broader market during the last housing cycle. Its late-2024 peak using the same pattern points to a possible stock-market top around late 2026 or early 2027. If D.R. Horton breaks below roughly $130, it would strengthen Pizzino's case.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been on the rise, trading near $79,700 today after reclaiming its 200-day moving average. Pizzino thinks Bitcoin can rally further to about $120,000 from the July low, but sees $180,000 as much harder if credit keeps tightening.