Howell Sees 2026 as a Slow Year for Bitcoin Due to Global Liquidity Cycle
Liquidity expert Michael Howell argues that Bitcoin's price is influenced by wholesale financial market liquidity rather than conventional M2. According to him, the cryptocurrency's weakness is due to declining global liquidity, not Federal Reserve tightening.
Howell points out that the AI capital expenditure boom and a significant U.S. deficit are draining liquidity from financial markets. He believes that the global liquidity cycle will reach its lowest point in 2027, which could give more room for Bitcoin's growth.
Howell also predicts that the 30-year yield will increase to 6%, citing nominal GDP growth of 6-8% and treasury yields converging upwards. He notes that this level is crucial for refinancing, as private sector borrowings arranged at lower rates must still be rolled over.