Howell Sees 30-Year Yield Hitting 6% Amid Global Liquidity Drought

Cross-border capital founder Michael Howell says Bitcoin's recent weakness is not a cause for concern. He believes the cryptocurrency tracks wholesale financial market liquidity, rather than conventional M2, which he claims often gives 'very, very false signals'. According to Howell, global liquidity is currently at its lowest point in 65 months and will reach its bottom around mid-2027.

Howell points out that the growing gap between Global M2 and Bitcoin's price is a definitional issue rather than a signal. He argues that the real economy's momentum, fueled by the AI capital expenditure boom and a federal deficit approaching 6% of GDP, is draining liquidity from financial markets.

The expert predicts that the 30-year yield will reach 6%, which he considers a tipping point for the economy to move towards slower growth. However, he emphasizes that this does not necessarily mean a recession, but rather a constraint on growth.