Howell Sees Higher Treasury Yields Ahead, Dims Bitcoin's 2026 Prospects
Michael Howell, a well-known liquidity expert and founder of Cross-border Capital, has shed light on Bitcoin's recent weakness. According to him, investors who focus on conventional M2 have misread Bitcoin's price action. Howell believes that Bitcoin tracks wholesale financial market liquidity rather than retail bank deposits.
He attributed the drawdown in Bitcoin's price to a decline in global liquidity, fueled by the AI capital expenditure boom and a significant U.S. deficit. The growing gap between Global M2 and Bitcoin's price is seen as a definitional issue rather than a signal of weakness.
Howell pointed out that nominal GDP growth is running at 6-8% annualized, the fastest since the first half of the 1980s. He expects treasury yields to converge upwards towards the trend, with the 30-year yield potentially reaching 6%. This level is crucial for refinancing private sector borrowings.
Howell also mentioned that the global liquidity cycle will reach its lowest point in 2027, which could give more room for Bitcoin's growth. However, he does not expect 2026 to be a big year for Bitcoin, stating that 'Bitcoin is behaving exactly as Bitcoin should perform.'