Hunt's U-Turn: Long-Term Treasurys Lose Bullish Backing from Hoisington Economist

Lacy Hunt, chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management, has reversed his decades-long bullish call on long-term US Treasurys in the firm's Q2 2026 investor report.

Hunt's change of heart comes after three decades of recommending that investors buy long-duration Treasurys. The shift is significant because Hunt was a leading proponent of this strategy, which has attracted around $5 billion in assets under management at its peak.

The new outlook flips the previous framework on its head. Hoisington now expects long-run inflation to settle between 3.5% and 4.5%, driven by widening fiscal deficits, deglobalization, and excess government debt.

This change in perspective has led to a dramatic portfolio adjustment, with Hoisington slashing its effective duration from around 21 years in September 2025 to below one year currently.