IEA Cuts Oil Supply Forecast Again: Bitcoin Borrowers Face Continued Pressure

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its oil supply forecast for 2026 and now expects full Gulf supply recovery in 2027. This revision complicates the prospect of energy-driven relief in borrowing costs for Bitcoin investors, who rely on cheaper credit to hold their assets.

The IEA's September 11 report projects an average global supply of 100.7 million barrels a day this year, down from 102 million in its August 12 outlook. Demand is weakening as well: the agency forecasts global oil consumption will fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 compared to 2025.

Despite weaker consumption, observed inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August, indicating that physical tightness remains a concern. However, increased volumes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and military-escorted shipments through it have helped narrow crude export losses.