Inflation and Interest Rates in Focus as US Economic Calendar Heats Up

The US economic calendar is packed over the next two weeks with key releases that will test the market's narrative around inflation and interest rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, due on August 12, is particularly important as it follows a 9-3 vote at the previous Federal Reserve meeting to hold rates steady. Three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of a rate hike, marking the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers aligned on one directional call.

The CPI reading will be followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on August 13 and retail sales on August 14. The PPI tracks price pressures further up the supply chain and feeds into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures. If producer prices trend with consumer prices, some traders may see it as confirming the inflation path building through the week; if the two diverge, markets may treat the signal as murkier heading into the minutes.

The FOMC minutes from the July 28-29 meeting will be published on August 19. The minutes show how close that view came to swaying the broader committee. If the minutes reveal broader support for a hike, some traders may see this as raising the odds of a more hawkish path into the September 15-16 meeting.

The second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released on August 26, which will be read alongside CPI, PPI, and the FOMC minutes from earlier in the window. Nvidia's fiscal Q2 earnings call is also scheduled for August 26, which can influence broader risk sentiment.