Institutional Capital Shifts Bitcoin Cycle from 4-Year to 6-8 Year Rhythm
Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle may be losing its influence as institutional capital and macro liquidity gain more control over price, according to analyst Willy Woo. Woo suggests that Bitcoin is shifting toward a 6-to-8-year rhythm tied to traditional finance's short-term debt cycle rather than its halving schedule.
The latest halving in April 2024 reduced the block reward to 3.125 BTC, or about $81,015, cutting annual new issuance to roughly 164,250 BTC, equivalent to around 0.82% of current circulating supply. The next halving in 2028 would cut that pace again to about 82,125 BTC a year, equivalent to around 0.41% of today's supply base.
Meanwhile, institutional capital is growing rapidly, with over 2.7 million BTC held by public companies and exchange-traded products. This dwarfs the amount of new Bitcoin miners add to circulation each year, making it clear that institutional holders are playing a significant role in shaping the market.