Jackson Confirms Lee's Crypto-to-Stocks Thesis, But Finds Trading Edge Elusive

Financial analyst Eric Jackson has analyzed data from 143 months of Bitcoin (BTC) and S&P 500 performance. He found that the S&P 500 gained an average of 1.46% following a positive month for BTC, while it averaged +0.23% after a negative month.

Jackson's study supports FundStrat's Tom Lee's broader thesis that crypto has historically led the stock market by about a month. However, Jackson concluded that the pattern is too noisy to provide a reliable trading edge over simply buying and holding stocks.

According to Jackson, 78% of the total three-month response happened within the first 15 days after a BTC move, and the signal had essentially disappeared by the fourth week. This means that even though the pattern was statistically real, it wasn't strong enough to actually beat the market.