July Jobs Report: Will Bitcoin React Like Last Time or Break the Pattern?

The July jobs report is due today, and economists forecast a gain of just 83,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. This has Bitcoin traders wondering if the reaction will mirror June's report.

Last month, June's payrolls came in far below the roughly 110,000 economists had forecast. Weak hiring data typically revives bets that the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate hikes, since lower rates ease liquidity conditions that support Bitcoin.

Bitcoin jumped 4% to near $62,000 after June's report landed, then climbed toward $64,000 over the following weekend as traders priced out a near-term hike. However, this rally did not hold, and Bitcoin slipped roughly 3% by the end of July, trading near $63,080.

Vanguard's 401(k) data points to a payroll gain of just 18,000, a miss that would likely echo June's rally. Citigroup holds an out-of-consensus call for three rate cuts between now and January 2027. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook struck a more cautious tone this week.