Kalshi Traders See 57% Chance of Bitcoin Falling Below $55K this Year
A recent survey of traders on Kalshi's prediction market suggests that Bitcoin may be due for a downturn. As of July 25, more than half of traders - 57% to be exact - believe that Bitcoin will fall below $55,000 before the end of the year. This probability has actually improved since June 3, when it stood at 66%. The contract in question is built on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, which tracks minute-by-minute price changes.
What's more, the broader market seems to be pricing in a bearish scenario. A separate contract implies a 43% chance that Bitcoin will trade below $50,000 before year-end, while another puts the probability of a fall below $45,000 at 33%. In contrast, a contract tracking whether Bitcoin trades above $67,500 in July 2026 is pricing in only a 19% probability.
The structure of these contracts reveals something useful about the market's distribution of outcomes. The gap between each level is large, and the probabilities do not drop off as steeply as one might expect if traders thought any decline would be gradual and orderly.