MicroStrategy Stock Surges Despite Flat Bitcoin Price

MicroStrategy's (MSTR) stock is on an upward trajectory, closing at $97.68 on Monday after a 5% jump. This comes despite Bitcoin's relatively flat price near $64,000. The company's stock has fallen by about 38% in 2026, which is steeper than the 28% drop seen in Bitcoin.

The disconnect between MSTR's stock performance and its rating as a 'Strong Buy' can be attributed to one key factor: the premium called mNAV. This premium measures the value of MicroStrategy's shares relative to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings.

In June, mNAV dropped below 1 for the first time in history, indicating that the market now values the company at less than the Bitcoin it holds. This has left the company with a stack of 840,447 BTC worth around $54 billion, but acquired for roughly $63 billion. As a result, the premium that once reached 1.4 times of Bitcoin's value has collapsed to about 0.7.

However, this discount provides an opportunity for MicroStrategy's stock to rebound if sentiment improves and the premium re-rates back toward 1.5. In fact, if the premium were to recover to its previous level, the stock could climb by half without Bitcoin's price movement.